Predictors for caesarean delivery and neonatal admission after trial of labour in women with one previous lower segment caesarean scar

Introduction: Caesarean delivery rates are still increasing, and reliable predictors of adverse outcomes at a subsequent trial of scar are important as they guide decision-making on the best mode of delivery. We aimed to evaluate whether there are any predictors for caesarean delivery and neonatal admission, following trial of labour after one lower transverse caesarean section.
Methods: 768 women at term with singleton gestation and who had undergone a trial of labour between June 2002 and December 2005, were retrospectively identified using the labour ward register. 51 infants were admitted to a neonatal unit. Case notes for these cases were retrieved. Emergency repeat caesarean delivery and neonatal admission were the main outcome measures.

Results: Following multivariate logistic regression analysis, no previous vaginal birth (adjusted odds-ratio [AOR] 3.4), diabetes mellitus or hypertension in pregnancy (AOR 1.7), induction of labour (AOR 2.0), oxytocin use in labour (AOR 2.4), and meconium-stained liquor (AOR 4.9) were independent predictors of emergency caesarean delivery. Diabetes mellitus or hypertension in pregnancy (AOR 3.1), prelabour rupture of membranes (AOR 4.7) and caesarean delivery (AOR 6.0) were independent predictors of neonatal admission.

Conclusion: Predictors for emergency caesarean delivery and neonatal admission following a trial of labour can be identified. This information should be incorporated into the counselling of women contemplating a trial of labour. The strongest predictor for neonatal admission was emergency caesarean delivery, further emphasising the need for careful case selection in a trial of labour to minimise the risk of failure.